Axios Space: The stakes of Branson and Bezos' race

Plus: UFO poll and a Pontiac in space | Tuesday, July 06, 2021

Open in app View in browser   Presented By Babbel   Axios Space By Miriam Kramer ·Jul 06, 2021 Thanks for reading Axios Space. At 1,374 words, this week's newsletter is about a 5-minute read. Please send your tips, questions and spacey action movie recommendations to miriam.kramer@axios.com, or if you received this as an email, just hit reply.     1 big thing: The high stakes of Branson and Bezos' race to space Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photos: Axelle/Bauer-Griffin/FilmMagic, Drew Angerer/Getty Images   When Jeff Bezos and Richard Branson take flight aboard the rockets their companies built, the hopes and dreams of a burgeoning industry will be flying with them as well. Why it matters: Accidents or errors on these high-profile flights from Virgin Galactic and Blue Origin could derail their plans — and possibly affect others' plans — for commercial space tourism and travel. Driving the news: Last week, Virgin Galactic announced that it would push to fly Branson and others on a fully crewed test flight on July 11, just ahead of Blue Origin's first flight with Bezos, scheduled for July 20. There has been a low hum of animosity brewing between the two companies in public since it was revealed Bezos might fly before Branson. That rivalry spilled over last week after the Branson announcement, with Blue Origin CEO Bob Smith saying the two companies aren't after the same prize in these first flights. "We wish him a great and safe flight, but they're not flying above the Karman line and it's a very different experience," Smith said of Branson and Virgin Galactic in a statement via the New York Times. (The Karman line is the unofficial altitude at which space begins, about 62 miles up.) The big picture: Launching and building satellites is a big moneymaker in the space industry, but suborbital space tourism is seen as a means of getting more people interested in the space industry in the long term. In theory, these flights should be more affordable and available to a large group of people who will only need to train for a day or two before going to the edge of space. If something were to go wrong with one of these high-profile, early flights, it could threaten the companies' business plans going forward and cast doubt on whether suborbital space tourism could serve as a boon for the rest of the industry. Flashback: An accident during a Virgin Galactic test flight in 2014 left one pilot dead. After the crash, Branson considered stopping development of the company's space plane altogether. Yes, but: The company did continue on, and public support for it has been steady. It's possible an accident from either of the companies wouldn't hurt public opinion of the endeavor as a whole. Depending on why an accident occurred, "I don't think you would see a mass exodus of Virgin Galactic reservation holders or a noticeable drop in interest in flying on Blue Origin," space historian Robert Pearlman said. What to watch: A major failure or problem could also put pressure on Congress to start pushing for more regulation of private human spaceflight, which some argue could stifle the space travel industry just as it is beginning. At the moment, the FAA is not allowed to regulate the safety of "spaceflight participants" — Bezos, Branson or anyone else who would fly on one of these vehicles — until at least 2023. Instead, the crews today fly under a regime known as "informed consent" where they must agree to and be told of the risks before launch. That moratorium on regulation was put in place in order to allow the industry to launch before restrictions were placed on it.     2. We want to believe Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios   Fifty-one percent of Americans believe UFOs reported by military personnel are likely evidence of intelligent alien life, according to a new poll released by Pew last week. Why it matters: Questions about whether smart aliens have come to visit Earth have been asked for decades, and these results show that curiosity — which can sometimes verge into conspiracy theory — persists. What they found: The new poll surveyed 10,417 U.S. adults in June ahead of the release of a UFO report mandated by Congress and made public at the end of June. About 65% of respondents said they think there is intelligent alien life on planets other than Earth, and about 87% said UFOs aren't a security threat to the U.S. at all or only represent a minor one, Pew found. According to the poll, only 12% of American adults had heard or read a lot about the UFO report before its release. "Some segments of the public are more likely than others to believe that intelligent life exists on other planets," Pew wrote in a release. "This view is especially pronounced among younger Americans. About three-quarters (76%) of adults under age 30 say intelligent life exists on other planets, versus 57% of those 50 and older." The bottom line: In all likelihood, evidence of alien life won't come in the form of a grainy video taken high above an ocean, but will instead be the discovery of tiny, fossilized microbes on Mars, or some other little creature swimming through an ocean engulfing a distant moon.     3. Virgin Orbit takes flight Virgin Orbit's Cosmic Girl takes flight on June 30. Photo: Virgin Orbit   Virgin Orbit's satellite launch last week has already brought the company an influx of business interest, CEO Dan Hart told me. Why it matters: Success for small rocket launchers like Virgin Orbit is built on customers trusting them with their wares, so having a successful mission for commercial customers can go a long way toward building confidence. Catch up quick: On Wednesday, Virgin Orbit launched seven satellites for three different customers to orbit from off the California coast. Its launch system makes use of a modified 747 plane named Cosmic Girl that flies the company's small LauncherOne rocket thousands of feet up in the air. Once the rocket is dropped, its engine kicks on, boosting the satellites to orbit. What's happening: Since the June 30 flight, the company has seen an influx of queries from across the space industry including civil, national security, U.S. and international customers, according to Hart. The intrigue: Another attractive element of Virgin Orbit's system for customers, Hart said, is its ability to effectively launch from anywhere. Instead of being tied to one or two launch sites like many other rocket launchers, Virgin Orbit "can make any airport into a spaceport," Hart said. That capability opens the door for nations that don't otherwise have their own launch systems to use Virgin Orbit's on their own soil. "There are almost 80 space agencies across the world, and maybe 10 countries that can launch," Hart said. "To fill out their space economy ... there are a lot of countries that would like to have this piece so they can really have the full economic benefit of space access."     A message from Babbel Here's a skill you can show off this summer     Travel, friends, adventures – it's happening. Get ready with Babbel and start having conversations in a new language – such as Spanish, Italian, or Portuguese – in as little as 3 weeks. Get 60% off during their 4th of July sale. Sign up today.     Bonus: The overview effect at the movies The Tesla launched to space in 2018. Photo: SpaceX   The most recent installment in the "Fast and Furious" franchise — "F9" — is a generally ridiculous movie, but it also has a good example of what many astronauts call the "overview effect" tucked into it. *Minor spoilers follow* What's happening: Two characters, Roman Pearce (played by Tyrese Gibson) and Tej Parker (played by Ludacris), strap themselves into a modified Pontiac Fiero outfitted with rocket engines to head to orbit and take out a bad guy's satellite. It's a truly absurd storyline worthy of a franchise that's constantly escalating its action sequences, but at its heart, there was a tender moment where Roman and Tej looked back at Earth in awe of what they were seeing. That "overview effect" is something astronauts have described for years — a sense of oneness with humanity brought on by seeing the world from above. Shots of the car in space were also reminiscent of views of the Tesla SpaceX launched to orbit aboard the first flight of the Falcon Heavy in 2018. (Photo above) Go deeper: If you must read more about this very silly scene, read this interview from Slate with former astronaut Mike Massimino.     4. Out of this world reading list Artist's illustration of a white dwarf star and the Moon. Image: Giuseppe Parisi   Gamma-ray bursts continue to surprise (Jonathan O'Callaghan, Quanta Magazine) Radio telescope faces "extremely concerning" threat from satellite constellations (Jeff Foust, SpaceNews) Scientists find the smallest, most massive white dwarf star yet (Axios) Chinese astronauts take first spacewalk at new orbital station (Oriana Gonzalez, Axios)     5. Weekly dose of awe: A glowing atmosphere Photo: NASA   Speaking of the overview effect, astronauts on the International Space Station are treated to views like this every day. Some have talked about how seeing the thin line of the atmosphere as all that separates us from the vacuum of space has caused them to become stronger environmentalists. This time-lapse photo was taken from the space station as it flew 262 miles above the Democratic Republic of the Congo, revealing star trails, city lights and atmospheric glow.     A message from Babbel Here's a skill you can show off this summer     Travel, friends, adventures – it's happening. Get ready with Babbel and start having conversations in a new language – such as Spanish, Italian, or Portuguese – in as little as 3 weeks. Get 60% off during their 4th of July sale. Sign up today.   Big thanks to Alison Snyder, Sam Baker and Sheryl Miller for editing this week's edition. If this newsletter was forwarded to you, subscribe here. 🚀 Like this email style and format? Learn more about Axios HQ. 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